000 AXNT20 KNHC 151738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALONG 31W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS UPDATED PSN IS PLACED ALONG THE AXIS OF AN INVERTED V-SHAPE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...A QSCAT PASS AROUND 8Z SHOWED SOME TURNING IN THE FLOW ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THE ANALYZED PSN AND AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES OR SFC OBSERVATIONS AND LIES IN A REGION OF VERY STABLE AIR TO THE W OF A LARGE UPPER LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W/76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SIMILARLY TO THE WAVE IN THE E CARIB...THIS ONE IS NOT RECOGNIZABLE IN CURRENT DATA. THEREFORE THE PSN IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING W OVER PANAMA AND WRN COLOMBIA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N22W 7N29W 6N40W 5N53W. BESIDES FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-22W AND 34W-41W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE NW CARIB AND LARGER SCALE TROUGHING STRETCHING W FROM THE WRN ATLC. THE NET EFFECT IS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MOISTURE WISE...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA IS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE REGION PRODUCED BY THE CARIB TROUGH. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME PUSHING TOWARD S FLA...WITH THE DEEPER STEADY PRECIP FURTHER S. MORE ON THIS FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF E TX AND WRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY CAUSED BY INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 92W IS PROVIDING A STABLE AIRMASS ALLOWING FAIR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE NW CARIB N OF 18N GENIALLY BETWEEN 76W-85W...WHICH INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. THE SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM HONDURAS TO THE SE GULF ALONG 14N87W 21N87W 25N83W. AN ILL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW SITS ON THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS/ CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE SFC TROUGH...MORE IN LINE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG AND E OF THE UPPER LOW. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. NWP MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY PRESSING TO THE NW AFFECTING THE YUCATAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER...BESIDES FOR THE TYPICAL ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB. THESE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. TRADES WINDS ARE A QUITE STRONG 20-30 KT IN THIS REGION DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND BROAD RIDGING NE OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... EXTENSIVE W TO SWLY UPPER FLOW TO THE S OF A LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC WATERS W OF 60W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N68W ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND MAY BE DROPPED AT 18Z. IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS POINTS S OVER CUBA WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NE OF THERE WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE ALONG 26N75W 32N63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...E OF 60W...LIES IN A REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR. THE DRIEST AIR IS IN CONFLUENT ZONES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N57W...AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 28N47W AND ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 17N28W. THE SFC PATTERN IS JUST ABOUT AS TRANQUIL WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NEARLY E-W ALONG 27N. THESE PATTERNS ARE MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THIS REGION. $$ CANGIALOSI 000 AXNT20 KNHC 151738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALONG 31W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS UPDATED PSN IS PLACED ALONG THE AXIS OF AN INVERTED V-SHAPE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...A QSCAT PASS AROUND 8Z SHOWED SOME TURNING IN THE FLOW ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THE ANALYZED PSN AND AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES OR SFC OBSERVATIONS AND LIES IN A REGION OF VERY STABLE AIR TO THE W OF A LARGE UPPER LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W/76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SIMILARLY TO THE WAVE IN THE E CARIB...THIS ONE IS NOT RECOGNIZABLE IN CURRENT DATA. THEREFORE THE PSN IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING W OVER PANAMA AND WRN COLOMBIA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N22W 7N29W 6N40W 5N53W. BESIDES FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-22W AND 34W-41W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE NW CARIB AND LARGER SCALE TROUGHING STRETCHING W FROM THE WRN ATLC. THE NET EFFECT IS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MOISTURE WISE...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA IS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE REGION PRODUCED BY THE CARIB TROUGH. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME PUSHING TOWARD S FLA...WITH THE DEEPER STEADY PRECIP FURTHER S. MORE ON THIS FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF E TX AND WRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY CAUSED BY INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 92W IS PROVIDING A STABLE AIRMASS ALLOWING FAIR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE NW CARIB N OF 18N GENIALLY BETWEEN 76W-85W...WHICH INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. THE SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM HONDURAS TO THE SE GULF ALONG 14N87W 21N87W 25N83W. AN ILL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW SITS ON THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS/ CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE SFC TROUGH...MORE IN LINE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG AND E OF THE UPPER LOW. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. NWP MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY PRESSING TO THE NW AFFECTING THE YUCATAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER...BESIDES FOR THE TYPICAL ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB. THESE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. TRADES WINDS ARE A QUITE STRONG 20-30 KT IN THIS REGION DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND BROAD RIDGING NE OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... EXTENSIVE W TO SWLY UPPER FLOW TO THE S OF A LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC WATERS W OF 60W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N68W ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND MAY BE DROPPED AT 18Z. IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS POINTS S OVER CUBA WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NE OF THERE WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE ALONG 26N75W 32N63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...E OF 60W...LIES IN A REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR. THE DRIEST AIR IS IN CONFLUENT ZONES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N57W...AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 28N47W AND ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 17N28W. THE SFC PATTERN IS JUST ABOUT AS TRANQUIL WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NEARLY E-W ALONG 27N. THESE PATTERNS ARE MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THIS REGION. $$ CANGIALOSI 000 AXNT20 KNHC 151738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALONG 31W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS UPDATED PSN IS PLACED ALONG THE AXIS OF AN INVERTED V-SHAPE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...A QSCAT PASS AROUND 8Z SHOWED SOME TURNING IN THE FLOW ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THE ANALYZED PSN AND AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES OR SFC OBSERVATIONS AND LIES IN A REGION OF VERY STABLE AIR TO THE W OF A LARGE UPPER LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W/76W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SIMILARLY TO THE WAVE IN THE E CARIB...THIS ONE IS NOT RECOGNIZABLE IN CURRENT DATA. THEREFORE THE PSN IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING W OVER PANAMA AND WRN COLOMBIA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N22W 7N29W 6N40W 5N53W. BESIDES FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-22W AND 34W-41W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE NW CARIB AND LARGER SCALE TROUGHING STRETCHING W FROM THE WRN ATLC. THE NET EFFECT IS LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MOISTURE WISE...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA IS LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE REGION PRODUCED BY THE CARIB TROUGH. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME PUSHING TOWARD S FLA...WITH THE DEEPER STEADY PRECIP FURTHER S. MORE ON THIS FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF E TX AND WRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY CAUSED BY INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. ELSEWHERE AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 92W IS PROVIDING A STABLE AIRMASS ALLOWING FAIR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE NW CARIB N OF 18N GENIALLY BETWEEN 76W-85W...WHICH INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. THE SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM HONDURAS TO THE SE GULF ALONG 14N87W 21N87W 25N83W. AN ILL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW SITS ON THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS/ CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE SFC TROUGH...MORE IN LINE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG AND E OF THE UPPER LOW. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. NWP MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY PRESSING TO THE NW AFFECTING THE YUCATAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER...BESIDES FOR THE TYPICAL ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB. THESE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND A LARGE UPPER LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. TRADES WINDS ARE A QUITE STRONG 20-30 KT IN THIS REGION DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA AND BROAD RIDGING NE OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... EXTENSIVE W TO SWLY UPPER FLOW TO THE S OF A LARGE HIGHLY ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC WATERS W OF 60W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N68W ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND MAY BE DROPPED AT 18Z. IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS POINTS S OVER CUBA WITH A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NE OF THERE WITHIN 300 NM E OF A LINE ALONG 26N75W 32N63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...E OF 60W...LIES IN A REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR. THE DRIEST AIR IS IN CONFLUENT ZONES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N57W...AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 28N47W AND ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 17N28W. THE SFC PATTERN IS JUST ABOUT AS TRANQUIL WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NEARLY E-W ALONG 27N. THESE PATTERNS ARE MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THIS REGION. $$ CANGIALOSI