000 AXNT20 KNHC 141756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 25W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK TURNING IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-9N. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE AXIS ALONG 60W. IT IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE W NEAR 25 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS WITHIN ITCZ. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 70W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE WAVE HAS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IS AFFECTING THE AREA OF LAKE MARACAIBO. A SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS FOLLOWS THIS TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT FRI. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND THE EPAC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 89W/90W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N16W 8N22W 5N35W 5N45W 10N58W. BESIDES FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 43W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE NE GULF WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THIS TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD...AND IS ALREADY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOME SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO SEEN ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...MAINLY NEAR 28N92W. A SFC RIDGE IS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE NE GULF BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INTERESTING FEATURE OF THE DAY IS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EXTREME W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N85W IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS SPREADING OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND E-CENTRAL CUBA. A NEAR 60 NM WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO EAST OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC COAST OF NICARAGUA ALL THE WAY N TO 20N83W. A 1009 MB SFC LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 19N86W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS STREAMING BY WSW UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE TYPICAL LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EPAC ITCZ. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALONG 60W AND 70W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE E/SE OF A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N71W AND TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND N OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA DETECT A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH ALONG 22N67W 26N63W 31N58W IN A DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE EXTENSIVE TROUGHING AND RIDGING TO THE E. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 31N52W. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IN BETWEEN THESE RIDGES...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST NEAR 31N22W THEN CONTINUES SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS JUST E THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS NEAR 28N40W COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 60W. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA WITH ONLY PATCHES OF LOW/MID CLOUDS. THIS HIGH IS ALSO PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADE WINDS. $$ GR