000 AXNT20 KNHC 141043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 25 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE NOW AS IT WAS TWO TO THREE DAYS AGO...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING AROUND IT CYCLONICALLY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION IN TWO AREAS CLOUDS/SHOWERS...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W IN VENEZUELA. A CENTRAL AMERICA/EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 15N...FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W MAINLY IN THE OCEAN BUT STILL REACHING PARTS OF WESTERN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. WEAKENING PRECIPITATION AND WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM HONDURAS AT 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AT CUBA AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE GUINEA/GUINEA-BISSAU BORDER NEAR 12N14W TO 8N20W TO 6N26W 4N36W 9N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 8W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN HELPING TO CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 93W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS NEAR 20N91W PRACTICALLY RIGHT AT THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. THE SHOWERS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N72W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N66W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THEN IT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FLAT AND WEAK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND REACHES GRENADA AND/OR JUST SOUTH OF THERE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COVERS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A LITTLE BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 78W. A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 15N...FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W MAINLY IN THE OCEAN BUT STILL REACHING PARTS OF WESTERN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. WEAKENING PRECIPITATION AND WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM HONDURAS AT 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AT CUBA AND 83W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND THE 40N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N69W 25N65W BEYOND 30N60W. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 23N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 17N56W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GRENADA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WHOLE...EAST OF THE 21N70W 30N63W PRECIPITATION...TO AFRICA. A SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N37W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W. $$ MT