000 AXNT20 KNHC 131110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS TRACKED ACCORDING TO RAWINSONDE DATA IN BAMAKO. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE IN SOUTHERN GUYANA SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART. WHATEVER IS LEFT HAS MOVED WESTWARD INTO A CORNER OF BRAZIL JUST WEST OF GUYANA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 15N. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. ...THE ITCZ... 8N19W 5N27W 5N40W 8N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM WESTERN CUBA 48 HOURS AGO NOW IS OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N91W...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT LEAST 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM AROUND THIS 21N91W CYCLONIC CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N NOW...APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CENTRAL GEORGIA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. THE PARENT CYCLONIC CENTER IS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 40N66W CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH WENT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N86W... ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N78W TO 28N73W. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 28N92W 27N85W 27N73W FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COVERS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A LITTLE BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA... AND THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA... ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 15N. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N...WEST OF A 21N67W 27N62W BEYOND 32N55W RIDGE. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND THE 40N66W CYCLONIC CENTER. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N65W 27N62W BEYOND 32N56W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 24N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 19N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 24N41W TO 19N46W TROUGH. $$ MT