000 AXNT20 KNHC 130002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 6N TO 19N CONTINUES MOVING W AT A HEALTHY 25 KT CLIP. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT REMAINS ABSENT OF ANY DEEP CLOUDINESS OR SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT TRAVERSES THROUGH THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE CHALLENGING TO LOCATE IN THE LOW CLOUDS BUT STILL TRACKABLE FOLLOWING A WWD MOVING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS AND IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. CURRENTLY ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS APPROACHING THE COAST OF S AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIB ALONG 79W/80W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FLOWS CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE OROGRAPHY OF NORTHERN S AMERICA...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME ENHANCED TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...MOSTLY FUELED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE...IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N25W 4N35W 6N44W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-75 NM OF 8.5N17W WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SENEGAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS NOT QUITE COMPLETELY MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. UPPER AIR TIME SECTIONS FROM BAMAKO SUGGESTS THIS WAVE PASSED THE STATION ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO WITH FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION OF THE WAVE PLACING IT ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 00Z ANALYSIS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 23W-25W AND FROM BETWEEN 37W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF IS IN A N-NELY UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N97W AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N91W. A LARGE DIGGING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N ATLC TO GEORGIA AND SLIDING SWD IS IMPARTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR NE GULF. CONFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE/SINKING AIR WHICH IS PROVIDING A STABLE AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR FAIR SKIES OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET AXIS DICING SE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS FUELING A RASH OF SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS..SOME SEVERE...OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SE FL AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. AT THE SFC...THE PRES PATTERN REMAINS WEAK WITH A 1016 MB HIGH JUST S OF BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR TEXAS AND A DISSIPATING TROUGH ALONG 95W. THE NET EFFECT IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS THE WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO 85-86F...29-30C AT NOAA BUOYS 42001 AND 42003. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE REGION REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN PORTION WHERE PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE GENERALLY W OF 82W AND S OF 21N EXTENDING OVER HONDURAS...YUCATAN AND BELIZE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N91W AND A SPRAWLING RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N77W. ELSEWHERE...A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN CARIB...N OF 16N...AS DEBRIS MOISTURE IS PULLED AROUND THE NRN BRANCH OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIB WATERS IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... EXTENSIVE STRONG ZONAL AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW...TO THE S OF A LARGE AND PERSISTENT OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 40N66W COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 56W. THE ASSOCIATED JET AXIS RUNS FROM NE FLORIDA TO JUST S OF BERMUDA THEN NEWD INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC. SHOWERS AND TSTMS IGNITED EARLIER TODAY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET HAVE MOVED RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND ARE NOW SITUATED OVER PORTIONS OF COLLIER...PALM BEACH AND COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 23N66W 30N58W LINE WITHIN THE AREA OF INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THE AREA OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH NO SIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT IN THE AREA. FARTHER E...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD ALONG 20N52W 32N41W. MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE RIDGING STRETCHES W FROM AFRICA ALONG 22N TO ABOUT 35W. A WEAK SHEARED UPPER TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE RIDGES EXTENDING FROM 32N28W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N41W CONTINUING TO 16N51W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS NOW PULLED N OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES OF CIRRUS. ELSEWHERE....HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB CENTER NEAR 29N39W. THIS HIGH IS AIDING IN THE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HIGH ITSELF AND THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE NOTED ALONG 47W. $$ COBB