000 AXNT20 KNHC 121109 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 25 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO UP WELL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS LINEAR TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION IS DISSIPATING NOW WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 17N...FROM MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO AND IN GUATEMALA ALREADY HAS DISSIPATED. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 7N12W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 5N20W 3N30W 6N42W...6N46W 5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 19W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N31W 3N34W...AND 6N37W 7N43W 8N48W 8N52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA....AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 60W... A DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS STRENGTHENING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM MEXICO NEAR 24N107W NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO 23N87W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE STRETCHED OUT WITH TIME. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NORTHEASTERLY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO NORTHERLY WEST OF 90W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN TURN NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC FEATURE ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND A 41N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS STEERING THE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY TO 26N WEST OF 60W. THE 41N64W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 31N63W TO 30N72W BEYOND 30N80W. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 19N TO 25N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ONE CELL OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N48W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 22N45W 17N48W TROUGH. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N40W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 60W. $$ MT