000 AXNT20 KNHC 110449 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/29W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 25 TO 30 KT. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 24W AND 36W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST OF 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THIS WAVE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 12N16W IN GUINEA-BISSAU TO 7N27W 5N30W 4N36W 3N44W 3N47W TO 4N52W NEAR THE BRAZIL/FRENCH GUIANA BORDER. A BURST OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS TAKING PLACE NOW IN SIERRA LEONE AND IT COVERS THE WHOLE COUNTRY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W...AND FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SMALL BURST OF SHOWERS IS WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N10W. ...DISCUSSION... THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 60W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO NEAR 15N94W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 11N WEST OF 73W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W INCLUDING OVER CUBA AND NORTHERN HAITI/THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC UNDER THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. A SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 17N109W TO 24N107W BEYOND 30N100W IN TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF AND AWAY FROM THE CUBA CYCLONIC CENTER...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THAT SAME CYCLONIC FLOW IN SOME WAY. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 41N62W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SAID CYCLONIC CENTER TO 33N66W 29N73W AND 28N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH SOUTH OF 36N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N64W...TO 31N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT NORTH OF 30N WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N36W AND 23N40W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 33N29W 23N40W TROUGH. $$ MT