000 AXNT20 KNHC 101048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 415 NM SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ALONG 21W S OF 14N. THE WAVE IS MOVING JUST N OF DUE WEST NEAR 20 KT AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED FOR EARLY JUNE. A SFC LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS NOT ON ITS SIDE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH SCATTERED MODERATE STILL EXISTS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-24W...AND S OF THE LOW FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 19W-25W. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAR FROM OBVIOUS IN OBS OR SAT IMAGES...THEREFORE THE PSN REMAINS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 38W-44W...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE NORMAL ITCZ ACTIVITY. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS PSN IS A BIT W OF WHERE CONTINUITY WOULD HAVE TAKEN IT. HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLIGHT RELOCATION DUE TO THE RECENT VEERING WIND AND PRESSURE TENDENCY DROP AT BUOY 42059...WHICH SUGGESTS THE WAVE HAS PASSED. OVERALL THOUGH THE WAVE IS LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS WHEN IT PASSED THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY SAT. A WWD MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS STILL NOTED OVER VENEZUELA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 64W-68W...BUT MINIMAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIB ALONG 76W/77W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT LOW CLOUD MOTIONS IN THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORMAL BACKGROUND FLOW AROUND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 76W-80W...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 5N30W 3N47W 3N45W 7N58W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE ...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND WITHIN 30NM W OF 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA EARLIER HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA...BUT HAVE ALSO GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A 1017 MB SFC HIGH 28N92W AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER S MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. SFC WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF...THOUGH LAST NIGHTS QUIKSCAT PASS AT 10/0040 UTC SHOWED SOME ACCELERATION OF THE NE FLOW AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH A SMALL ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N E OF 93W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MON AROUND WEAK RIDGING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH THE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST S OF JAMAICA...AND THIS HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH N OVERNIGHT AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA. A BIT TAMER TRADE WIND REGIME DOMINATES THE ERN CARIBBEAN THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE NOTED. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SFC GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE BASIN WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WRN CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 76W...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL SFC PRESSURES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST IN THE SRN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS BUT HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT EXTENDING E FROM SOUTH CAROLINA IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 71W-77W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE RULES THE WRN ATLC AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY WEEK. FARTHER NE...A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 38N62W. THIS SYSTEM WAS THE SUPPORT FOR THE NOW DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 32N51W 28N53W. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB CENTER NEAR 27N33W RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 39W TO 12N AND A SPRAWLING RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER MAURITANIA. THESE UPPER SYSTEMS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED PATCHES OF CIRRUS. $$ WILLIS