000 AXNT20 KNHC 091039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LOST A GREAT DEAL OF ITS STRUCTURE AND CONVECTION SINCE IT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY ON JUNE 5. THE PSN OF THE WAVE IS MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 33W-41W...BUT THIS MAY BE MORE DUE TO NORMAL ITCZ ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BASED ON THE CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE CONTINUED TO AFFECT BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 56W-61W OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH WLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIB IS ALONG 71W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THERE IS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY...BUT SUSPECT MUCH OF THIS IS JUST THE NORMAL BACKGROUND FLOW AROUND THE OROGRAPHY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OVER THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS 14N. MORE SIGNIFICANT SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS OVER WRN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 69W-78W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N25W 4N40W 9N57W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-19W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALTHOUGH SIMILAR CONVECTION MOVED OFF AFRICA EARLY FRI AND HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED SINCE. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE ADDING ANOTHER WAVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-30W AND BETWEEN 54W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF HAS RELAXED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS WITH A NEW 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTER JUST S OF THE WRN FLORIDA FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A RESIDUAL 4-7' E/SE SWELL REMAINS IN THE WRN GULF...WHICH WILL ALSO RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WEAK HIGH DRIFTS W. ALOFT...AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 20N100W WHILE A MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAS TROUGHING OVER THE ERN GULF. CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS VERY DRY/STABLE AIR BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND HOUSTON. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS OVER THE FAR WRN GULF W OF 95W DOWNSTREAM FROM CONVECTION OVER MEXICO. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS NE OF A HAVANA TO NEW ORLEANS LINE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ITCZ CONVECTION HAS SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO IN A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IN LEE OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 65W-69W...AND JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 65W-66W. OUTSIDE OF THIS WEATHER AND THAT DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW JUST N OF CUBA DOMINATES N OF 16N. A PAIR OF RIDGES DOMINATES S OF 16N WITH A COL REGION BETWEEN THE TWO NEAR 12N81W. MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH SUN. SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LOW PERSIST OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS S OF 26N W OF 73W. OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE RULES THE WRN ATLC WITH A 1019 MB CENTER NEAR 29N72W. FARTHER NE...A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 38N61W. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 23N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY...ALSO SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 33W-50W...GENERATING MOSTLY JUST PATCHES OF CIRRUS. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC. $$ WILLIS