000 AXNT20 KNHC 061809 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXISTS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W FROM THE HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR BORDER SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NICARAGUA TO THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 7N11W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 5N29W...4N34W 4N41W 6N50W 8N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 47W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 2N TO 10N EAST OF 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N65W 9N60W 10N57W 12N52W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THIS TROUGH IS 30N80W...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT PART OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THREE AREAS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. TWO AREAS COVER THE WATERS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W...AND THE OTHER ONE IS FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN MOST AREAS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH COMBINES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF A PUERTO RICO-TO-GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA LINE. THE ACTUAL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY NEAR 16N87W AT THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO A TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N54W TO 13N59W TO THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN AT LEAST 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF BELIZE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...SOME CURRENTS OF AIR ARE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND OTHER CURRENTS OF AIR FLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ARE MOVING OUT TO SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NICARAGUA TO THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W FROM HONDURAS/ EL SALVADOR SOUTHWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 28N70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 24N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING EASTWARD AND NOW ARE NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 70W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 21N54W TO 13N59W TO THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N64W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE 21N54W 10N64W TROUGH. A FAR-EASTERN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THIS RIDGE...FROM 20N20W TO 17N29W TO 11N37W. $$ MT