000 AXNT20 KNHC 050515 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH ITCZ CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME INVERTED-V SIGNATURE HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 63W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-15N W OF 80W TO JUST INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N28W 7N44W 5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-17W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 4N FROM 8W-13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N OVER THE GULF ALONG 84W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER W TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE W GULF N OF 23N W OF 95W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21NE OF 95W. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AND EXTENDS N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN/S MEXICO AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS W OF 75W. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N FROM 63W-79W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF E OF LINE FROM 25N67W TO 32N62W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 65W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 76W-80W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES NE FROM 25N67W TO BEYOND 32N56W SEPARATING THE W ATLC UPPER TROUGH FROM A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N43W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N52W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 15N38W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 65W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N49W AND A 1024 MB HIGH TO THE E NEAR 31N32W. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 55W WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N TO 23N BETWEEN 45W-55W. $$ WALLACE