000 AXNT20 KNHC 040524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15W/16W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS NOT PASSED DAKAR AFRICA SO POSITION IS NOT VERIFIABLE. THE SQUALL LINE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ON THE LAST DISCUSSION IS NOW ALONG 23W...WELL AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. MID-ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DOES NOT SHOW ANY CYCLONIC TURNING TO INDICATE THE WAVE AXIS. NO SHOWER/CONVECTION TO INDICATE THE WAVE AXIS EITHER. POSITION IS BASED SOLELY ON PERSISTENCE. W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND AT A LOW AMPLITUDE. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 16N MOVING W 5-10 KT. SOME INDICATION IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS BUT IS IN AN AREA WHERE THE CURVATURE OBSERVED MAY BE TOPOGRAPHY INDUCED. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N18W 4N34W 4N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION...PREVIOUSLY A SQUALL LINE...IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 3N21W TO 8N24W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 12W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 40W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM 27N93W TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ENHANCING HEAVY SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND COULD BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING N INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF BARRY OVER THE W ATLC. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE GULF WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE N GULF COAST W OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVITY IN TEXAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH A 1012 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W AND EXTENDS N OVER THE FAR S GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 73W-76W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM ALONG A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N82W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS W OF 70W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING N INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF BARRY A 993 MB LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N72W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO 32N68W. AN UPPER RIDGE SEPARATES THE W ATLC UPPER TROUGH FROM A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 22N48W TO 28N44W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N39W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE E CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 16N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE REGION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. A 1025 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N26W AND A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. $$ WALLACE