000 AXNT20 KNHC 031023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ESPECIALLY NOW THAT IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ SO MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N15W 8N24W 4N37W 4N51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 28W-43W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 49W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER JUST OFF THE COAST OF SE GEORGIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF BARRY ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER NE FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WHICH IS 994 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TO ALONG THE US COAST. ALSO IN THE WAKE OF BARRY IS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1013 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF HONDURAS TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NE TO E FLOW. OUTER RAINBANDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF BARRY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-80W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARRY ARE OVER THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W ALONG 27N75W TO BEYOND 32N73W WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER W OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N77W ALONG 27N78W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N83W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 74W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N69W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N45W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 31N41W 26N45W TO 22N56W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A 1024 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N57W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 10N37W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 18N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES SW TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N35W TO NEAR 18N55W. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W WITH DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. $$ WALLACE