000 AXNT20 KNHC 030019 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ON T.D. BARRY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 02/2100 UTC. T.D. BARRY IS LOCATED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30.4N 81.6W AT 2100 UTC...MOVING NNE AT 20 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS BARRY RAPIDLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS FURTHER AND MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM EASTERN GEORGIA UP THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF VIRGINA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 79W-82W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO MONITOR THE UPPER AIR TIME SECTION AT CAYENNE IN THE FRENCH GUIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 48W-54W MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 6N30W 6N40W 7N50W. AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING THROUGH COTE D'IVOIRE THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 5W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 33W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SEE ABOVE CONCERNING T.D. BARRY CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA. 15 KT NWLY FLOW WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 25N AND E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE... A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 23N AND E OF 94W. WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO LIFT N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEAVING THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ALSO EXPECT T.D. BARRY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ELY TRADES ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W...WHILE SLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FEEDING INTO T.D. BARRY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO MOVE E TO HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 72W. IN ADDITION TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE SHARP TROUGH IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGING IN THE WRN ATLC. A 1024MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST E OF BERMUDA. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH BARRY TO SET UP A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF SE WINDS OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ALONG 53W N OF 12N. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 51W-56W BUT OTHER THAN THAT IT IS ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES OF CIRRUS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR 30N46W EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE ENE TO NEAR 33N40W BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB SFC HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS IS AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA