000 AXNT20 KNHC 011806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N86W. RADAR...LIGHTNING AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF S OF 28N E OF 87W. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. HAVE PLACED THE WAVE JUST TO THE E OF THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION...WITH UPPER ELY FLOW OVER THE REGION S OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 7N AND W OF THE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM E OF THE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 4N30W 5N44W 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-18W...AND WITHIN 120NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS FEATURE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM LOUISIANA AND THROUGH THE WRN GULF. WV IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE EXTENDING N THROUGH THE WRN ATLC. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY POPPED UP JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST JUST TO THE E OF THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS GENERALLY W OF 90W WITH ONLY PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT. THE SPECIAL FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH AN ATLC SFC RIDGE TO PRODUCE 20-25 KT E/SE WINDS AND 7-10 FT SEAS IN THE SE GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS S OF 28N...AND ALSO IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE. THE CONSENSUS IS TO BRING THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WRN ATLC OR NEAR THE SE U.S. COAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND WED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SFC TROUGH TRAILS SSW FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS...ALONG WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIB AND WRN CUBA...N OF 16N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ANOTHER PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BOTH S AND N OF JAMAICA. LIGHTNING AND SATELLITE DATA DEPICT SCATTERED TSTMS OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN MODERATE TRADES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH MORE OF A SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND REGIME IS EVIDENT E OF 75W WITH ONLY MINOR PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT (BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC) AND DAYTIME HEATING IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FLARE UP AGAIN OVER PUERTO RICO AS WELL. UPPER MOISTURE OVER THIS ACTIVITY AND OVER CONVECTION ALONG AN OLD ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH IS SPREADING S INTO THE ERN CARIB E OF 68W. A TRAILING TROUGH FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE NW CARIB THROUGH SAT WHILE MORE TYPICAL TRADES ANTICIPATED ERN PORTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH JUST NW OF BERMUDA IS AFFECTING THE WRN ATLC SFC WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS INTERACTS WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE IT WILL ALLOW S/SE WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH SAT...SEE HIGH SEAS AND COASTAL WATER FORECASTS FOR MORE INFO. EXTENSIVE UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO THE WRN ATLC AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC...ALONG 57W N OF 13N. ASSOCIATED 1013 MB SFC LOW NEAR 30W49W HAS A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 24N59W. THIS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 300NM SE OF THE SFC TROUGH. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1027 MB SFC HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS IS AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W. $$ WILLIS