000 AXNT20 KNHC 311111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W IS SOUTH OF 9N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND ANY RELATED PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... FROM 9N13W AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...TO 6N23W 4N33W 3N39W TO 53W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL JUST ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA...WITHIN 180 NM OFF THE COAST...FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W. OTHER CLUSTERS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W...AND FROM 4N TO LAND BETWEEN 4W AND 6W. STRONG SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N23W 6N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE 1N33W 5N45W 10N57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER BEYOND 32N. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LEADS TO A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM FLORIDA TO CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE RIDGE...EAST OF 22N89W 28N86W 31N84W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ALL THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 94W...ARE NOT RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA. THIS RAIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED AT 31/0900 UTC NEAR 19N87W NEAR THE BANCO CHINCHORRO...JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 50 TO 70 MILLIMETERS OF RAIN DURING THE LAST 10 HOURS IN EL SALVADOR FROM THE EL SALVADOR WEATHER BUREAU AROUND 30/0800 UTC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 11N77W...CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH...EASILY SPILLING OVER INTO SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN/ AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO GOES FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS ITS ENDPOINT NEAR PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N60W TO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N52W 19N62W. THIS MEANS RAIN FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER RIGHT ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND/OR IN THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS OF THESE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 17N63W 16N68W 20N72W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N53W TO 20N63W. THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N60W TO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N52W 19N62W. THIS MEANS RAIN FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER RIGHT ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND/OR IN THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS OF THESE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 17N63W 16N68W 20N72W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N53W 20N63WW SURFACE TROUGH. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N24W TO 20N37W TO 14N44W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. $$ MT