000 AXNT20 KNHC 301101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 7N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND ITS POSITION IS MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A WESTWARD- MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... 8N12W 5N22W 5N29W 5N34W 4N46W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...3N6W 4N11W 5N19W 4N24W 2N28W...WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 3N31W 4N42W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS/MEXICO AND 102W. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ALREADY DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION...AND SOME SMALLER SHOWERS...ARE IN THE GULF WATERS ELSEWHERE EAST OF 90W. THIS RAIN IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N75W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 91W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N83W NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 21N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS ABOUT 400 NM WEST OF EL SALVADOR AT THE PRESENT TIME. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N83W NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 21N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 84W. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RIGHT AT THE COLOMBIA COAST BETWEEN 73W AND 74W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N61W...AND GOES RIGHT TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N62W TO 24N63W...SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 18N77W IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N323W TO 14N46W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. $$ MT