000 AXNT20 KNHC 300622 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 7N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND ITS POSITION IS MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A WESTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE MASS ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT CLEAR CUT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. ...ITCZ... 7N12W 4N20W 5N27W 5N32W 4N40W 6N48W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W...WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N33W 5N40W 7N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 103W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N75W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N86W IN WESTERN NICARAGUA TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N90W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS ABOUT 400 NM WEST OF EL SALVADOR AT THE PRESENT TIME. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N82W TO 18N84W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM HONDURAS TO MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WEST OF 76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N62W...AND GOES TO 25N63W AND 18N64W...IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH AND U.S.A VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND IN THE WATERS SURROUNDING PUERTO RICO FROM 16N TO 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N64W TO 24N62W...SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 18N75W JUST NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 59S. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N33W TO 24N33W AND 14N46W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. $$ MT