000 AXNT20 KNHC 300004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG 29W/30W FROM 1N TO 8N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND ITS POSITION IS MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A WESTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE MASS ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT CLEAR CUT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-30W...BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTINCT UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N25W 4N32W 1N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS N OF THE AXIS FROM 2N-8N W OF 34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE GULF WATERS BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SATELLITE...RADAR...AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS BETWEEN 84W-93W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH ERN TEXAS. SFC SUPPORT IS GENERALLY LIMITED THOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED CONFLUENCE STILL EXISTS...WITH 15-20 KT E/SE FLOW IN THE ERN GULF AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MUCH LIGHTER/MORE VARIABLE FLOW IN THE WRN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER ERN TEXAS DRIFTS SLOWLY E/SE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SFC TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N81W 12N80W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 15N81W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AROUND RIDGING IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W. SIMILAR ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY HIGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH REMNANT TROUGHING FROM THE ATLC DEEP LAYER LOW AFFECTING THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC THIS EVENING...BEHIND THE DEEP LAYER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AREA. ASSOCIATED 1011 MB SFC LOW IS NEAR 30N64W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE FROM THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TRAILING SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THROUGH 25N63W 21N67W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER LOW AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 53W-66W. A 1028 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 32N35W DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC. THIS HAS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA E OF 50W. LESS LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT E OF 25W WHERE A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF DUST IS EVIDENT AS DEPICTED BY THE UW-CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS. $$ WILLIS