000 AXNT20 KNHC 291721 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG 27W/28W FROM 1N TO 9N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN 1N-7N AND 25W-35W...WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY LOCATED W OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE AXIS HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THIS CONVECTION...WITH MODEST E TO SE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE PLACEMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SOLE SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE AREA...LOCATED NEAR 7N29W...REPORTING NE WINDS AT 10 KT AHEAD OF THE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 4N27W 3N30W 1N40W AND INTO BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM EQ-3N E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 3N-5N AND 4W-7W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 44W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE...RADAR...AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 88W-91W THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE NW GULF. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DRIFT ACROSS THE ERN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A STABLE 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SFC TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N80W TO A WEAK SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 12N73W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 14N AND THE COLOMBIAN COAST BETWEEN 73W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING EASTERN HISPANIOLA...NW PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF THE DEEP LAYERED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN ATLC. TYPICAL ELY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N77W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. FURTHER EAST...A 1012 MB DEEP LAYER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 25N67W 23N68W TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS 200 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 23N. A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO THE AREA EAST OF 50W. SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 30W BETWEEN 7N-18N. $$ WADDINGTON