000 AXNT20 KNHC 290542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG 24W/25W FROM 2N TO 8N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N20W 4N30W 1N40W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 14W-17W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 17W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 41W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 48W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY FLOW. THE GRADIENT IS LEAST OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE 10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 89W-94W MOVING E. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N94W DRIFTING E. DIFFLUENCE FORM THIS UPPER LOW HELPED PRODUCE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 85W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM W OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W TO THE LOW CENTER TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 72W-75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND MOVING IN FROM THE S. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ISLAND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 63W-69W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N85W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N64W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 70W. A COL IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N72W. FURTHER E...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR PUERTO RICO ALONG 24N64W 20N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 60W-64W. THE E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS AT 34N48W...AND 34N28W. THEY ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 10N E OF 55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CENTER NEAR 28N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 26N19W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W 10N48W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N24W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH MOVES E WITH CONVECTION. $$ FORMOSA