000 AXNT20 KNHC 281045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 19W/20W FROM 2N TO 8N...MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN IN THE REGION FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 17W-24W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 4W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 31W-40W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 48W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 10-20 KT ELY FLOW. THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 96W-99W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NE MEXICO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 96W-98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N101W MOVING E. DIFFLUENCE FORM THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE RAIN ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 87W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO THE LOW CENTER TO PANAMA NEAR 7N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 73W-79W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 85W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 76W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N63W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 73W. A COL IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 30N61W 20N68W. SFC TROUGHING...ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THIS MOISTURE RICH REGION WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18W BETWEEN 58W-70W. THE E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS AT 34N46W...AND 37N26W. THEY ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 10N E OF 55W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 26N26W TO 18N40W BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING MUCH MORE THAN PATCHES OF CIRRUS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA