000
AXNT20 KNHC 261718
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N13W 3N24W 5N35W 8N48W 6N58W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM 
RADIUS OF 5N37W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 6.5N42W 8N48W 
7N51W 8.5N55W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE 
FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SW. 
A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE E COAST OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E HALF OF 
THE GULF...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 75W. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THIS AREA. 
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN GULF WITH DIFLUENT FLOW 
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER E TEXAS AND JUST 
OFFSHORE OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE TEXAS COAST. AT THE SURFACE A 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS. 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION AT THE LOWER 
LEVELS AND A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 
19N84W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD RIDGING COVERS THIS AREA WITH THE AXIS LOCATED FROM NEAR 
29N62W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 12N78W. THE RIDGE 
IS CAPPED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
CENTRAL CUBA TO 28N70W TO 30N55W. THE JET THEN TURNS NORTHWARD 
BEYOND 32N49W. CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS ALONG 
THE JET. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THE COLOMBIA 
COAST TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE 
VICINITY OF 12N78W OVER THE 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W TO 23N62W AND THEN 
CONTINUES AS A TROUGH SW TO NEAR 20N70W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS 
STRONGEST WITHIN 4 TO 5 DEGREES N OF THE TROUGH AND A LOW MAY 
DEVELOP NEAR 25N70W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

E ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE 
EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
NEAR 32N22W TO 18N38W AND CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 18N E OF 42W INTO 
AFRICA. THE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD. A CYCLONIC VORTEX IS 
CENTERED NEAR 29N23W...MOVING S ABOUT 10 KT. A JET EXTENDS FROM 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 18N35W TO 23N20W THROUGH THE AFRICAN 
COAST AT 25N. BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE 
DEEP TROPICS E OF ABOUT 30W.

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CAB