000 AXNT20 KNHC 251105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... 8N13W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W...AND IN GUYANA AND POSSIBLY WESTERN SURINAME FROM 4N TO 8N IN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N. THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IT IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE IT TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W IN TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME OF THIS WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATED TO THE FLORIDA-YUCATAN CHANNEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WEST OF 70W. THE ITCZ ALSO GOES FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 9N TO 10N80W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 73W. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE PANAMA COAST TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS... SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME...ARE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...IN THE WATERS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS WITHOUT PRECIPITATION NOW MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LONG AS THE TROUGH STAYS IN THE AREA FROM THE ISLANDS TO 20N WEST OF 60W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES OVER 33N56W TO 30N59W TO 22N59W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 24N60W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N60W TO 20N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND 18N70W ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N52W 23N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 77W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO COVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W. A FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N21W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 27N30W TO 16N38W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N53W 24N60W STATIONARY FRONT. $$ MT