000 AXNT20 KNHC 250547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... 8N13W 5N20W 4N30W 3N36W 2N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF 15W... SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W...AND SOUTH OF 6N30W 8N45W 8N57W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 4N2W AND WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N16W 4N20W 4N23W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 29W. THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS HELPING TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT... STILL IN CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS MOMENT...IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE IT TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOME AREAS DEVELOPING AND SOME ALTERNATELY DISSIPATING WITH TIME...IN SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TEXAS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME OF THIS WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATED TO THE FLORIDA-YUCATAN CHANNEL TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WEST OF 70W. THE ITCZ ALSO GOES FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 9N TO 10N80W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 73W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME...ARE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W... IN THE WATERS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES OVER 33N56W TO 29N63W TO 24N67W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N56W TO 24N61W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N61W TO 20N66W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N53W 25N56W 23N59W 20N63W. A FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N28W TO 19N36W AND 17N41W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30N51W 19N53W 10N56W. $$ MT