000 AXNT20 KNHC 241819 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 5N20W 4N30W 6N45W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 7W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 22W-32W... AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 41W-45W. THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO HAS RAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM 20N-24N. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT ELY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 95W WITH SUBSIDENCE. WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO FORM OVER N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL ELY SURFACE FLOW TO ADVECT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA ALONG 17N67W 11N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 75W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR 38N73W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N53W 25N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-63W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N35W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-50W. A PATCH OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 5N-25N E OF 40W TO AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 65W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N30W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N12W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 540 NM OF THE CENTER. $$ FORMOSA