000
AXNT20 KNHC 240009
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N25W 4N52W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-27W AND FROM 
5N-7N BETWEEN 25W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 37W-39W...FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 33W-36W...FROM 1N-3N 
BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 41W-45W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG COAST OF S AMERICA FROM EQUATOR TO 6N 
BETWEEN 50W-55W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES 
GULF OF MEXICO.  MODERATE E WINDS THROUGHOUT ENTIRE BASIN. 
SURFACE MOIST ELY FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA BRINGING SHOWERS OVER 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NW CUBA.  AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGH 
ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG COAST 
OF LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 86W-94W AND DIFFLUENT W WIND 
ALOFT S OF 26N BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH OVER W CARIBBEAN SEA FROM W CUBA THROUGH 
NICARAGUA TO PANAMA ALONG 20N85W 15N84W 9N82W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 
76W-78W IS DECREASING.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG COAST 
OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  MODERATE TRADES AND 
FAIR WEATHER OVER REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA AS AIR MASS REMAIN 
VERY DRY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR AT 
14N89W.  ANTICYCLONIC WIND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE NW UPPER 
LEVEL WIND OVER CARIBBEAN SEA.  VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER 
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR TROUGH OVER SW CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT 
SURFACE TROUGH OVER SW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W TO CENTRAL AMERICA 
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 24N63W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N FROM 53W-67W.  SURFACE TROUGH N OF 
HISPANIOLA ALONG 24N63W 21N70W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 66W-77W.  HIGH PRESSURE 1032 MB CENTERED 
OVER E ATLANTIC W OF AZORES NEAR 41N33W.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N FROM 20W-50W.  AREA OF AFRICAN 
DUST SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 5N-25N E OF 37W TO AFRICA.
AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER W ATLANTIC N OF 24N FROM 65W-80W.  
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N FROM 50W-65W.  UPPER LEVEL 
LOW OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N38W.  CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 360 
NM OF CENTER.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E ATLANTIC N OF 
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 34N17W.  CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 540 NM OF 
CENTER.

$$
WALLY BARNES