000
AXNT20 KNHC 231806
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 4N50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 
20W-27W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 25W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 35W-38W...FROM 5N-8N 
BETWEEN 33W-36W...FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND FROM 4N-8N 
BETWEEN 41W-45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 50W-54W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE 
MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  10-20 KT ELY WINDS ARE NOTED 
THROUGHOUT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 88W-92W.  NWLY 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 27N.  
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE INLAND TO S GEORGIA IN 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL ELY SURFACE FLOW TO 
ADVECT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA...AND W CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.      
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA FROM W CUBA TO 
PANAMA ALONG 22N82W 15N83W 9N82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-78W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  15-20 KT TRADEWINDS AND 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W.  ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE NWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 
EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W TO CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.        
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 27N60W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 53W-62W.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N60W 21N67W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 66W-77W.  A 1033 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE AZORES NEAR 
41N35W.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 
15N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  A PATCH OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 5N-25N E OF 35W TO AFRICA.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 
65W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
50W-65W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N38W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE 
CENTER.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 34N17W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 540 NM OF 
THE CENTER.  

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FORMOSA