000 AXNT20 KNHC 230600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... 6N10W 5N25W 4N31W 4N47W 5N54W IN FRENCH GUIANA. CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N24W 5N42W 5N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N AT THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 1W AND 6W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N9W 3N15W 4N19W 6N25W 5N28W 6N37W 7N46W 7N48W 7N53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 19N108W. THIS PATTERN SENDS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO AS FAR AS 27N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS SOUTH OF 27N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ON TOP OF AN AREA OF A SURFACE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE RIDGE OFF OF THE US ATLANTIC SEABOARD SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BUT INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS... TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND BOOSTING THE WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N86W IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 12N76W JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH STILL GOES FROM ANDROS ISLAND TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO 20N82W 18N83W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR 10N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N77W 12N78W 13N80W 14N84W IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA IN AN AREA OF ILL-DEFINED AND BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH IS EXPECTED... EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AFTER PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 34N63W TO 32N59W. ANOTHER BUT WEAKER BRANCH OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM 32N68W TO 26N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 27N60W TO 20N68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N80W TO 25N67W 28N60W BEYOND 32N54W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N41W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THIS SAME AREA AS A RIDGE IS ALONG 40W FROM 15N BEYOND 32N. A FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N14W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 23N BEYOND 32N EAST OF 30W TO AFRICA. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N14W. THE CURRENT PATTERN IS RATHER STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE HIGH ALONG THE US ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL INTENSIFY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE EASTERLY FLOW WEST OF 60W AND NORTH OF 22N TO PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY. $$ MT