000
AXNT20 KNHC 230010
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N24W 5N42W 5N52W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NMI NORTH 
OF THE AXIS FROM AFRICA TO 27W AND FROM 42W TO SOUTH 
AMERICA.     
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE GULF 
TODAY AS A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC 
STATES AND ONLY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED TO THE SW 
OF THE HIGH.  10-20 KT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COVER THE 
GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER.  THE LOW IS 
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH 
IT IS INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA.  THE RIDGE OFF OF 
THE US ATLANTIC SEABOARD SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY BUT 
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND 
BOOSTING THE WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES 
ALONG 9N81W 16N83W 23N80W.  ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 14N.
THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO ALSO BE KICKING OFF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF CUBA AND THE 
WESTERN BAHAMAS.  WHILE NOT ANALYZED CURRENTLY...IT IS POSSIBLE 
THAT THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY 
CONNECTED WITH THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH OVER 
THE ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS TOWARD HISPANIOLA.  SURFACE WINDS ARE 
GENERALLY WEAK OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BECAUSE OF THE 
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.  NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN...THOUGH 
SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NE PACIFIC IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AFTER 
PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N58W 25N64W.  
A WEAK LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AT 32N56W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-62W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 24N64W 20N73W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 62W-75W. A 
1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE AZORES 
NEAR 41N34W.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS 
N OF 12N BETWEEN 20W-55W.  THE CURRENT PATTERN IS RATHER 
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH AS PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED THE HIGH ALONG THE US ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL 
INTENSIFY.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE EASTERLY FLOW WEST OF 60W AND 
NORTH OF 22N TO PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY.    

$$
LANDSEA