000 AXNT20 KNHC 220532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 5N24W 4N35W 5N44W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-30W AND W OF 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER IS THE RULE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EARLY MORNING THANKS TO SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED TO THE E OF THE AREA IN THE SW ATLC AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVERHEAD ALONG 90W. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE E TO SE ACROSS THE REGION... STRONGEST BETWEEN 24N-28N AS DEPICTED BY A 00Z QSCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS BRISK BREEZE IS CARRYING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND THE EXTREME SE GULF. MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STABLE SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CLOUD FORMATION. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A REINFORCEMENT OF THE W ATLC RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE ELY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IN THE WESTERN CARIB CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE W. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIB ALONG 23N81W 17N83W 12N81W WITH A HINT OF A WEAK SFC LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE ELY TRADES LIE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH LIGHT NELY FLOW TO THE W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MORE IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS GENERALLY S OF 12N W OF 76W. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH AND A DVLPG AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING W ACROSS SRN CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALOFT...THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL W OF 75W TURNING MORE TO THE NW E OF THERE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FLOW AND TROUGHING N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS N OF 18N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CUBA...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS N OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH THE LARGE UPPER CYCLONE NOW WELL N IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SFC BOUNDARY WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N67W TOWARD HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO THE E IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THE SFC FLOW IS BRISK IN THIS REGION AS A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE W. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRAD TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND A DVLPG WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. VERY HEALTHY 1039 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 39N35W DOMINATES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES AND A SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N44W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGHING STRETCHING SWD TO 9N47W. THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT NOW APPEARS TO GAINING SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE CENTER. THE E ATLC IS AN AREA OF UPPER CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH WHICH DIGS SWD ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N AND UPPER RIDING POKING NWD FROM ITCZ TOWARD THE TROUGH. AN STRONG SW-WLY JET LIES BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES EXTENDING FROM 15N40W TO W AFRICA NEAR 24N16W. CORE WINDS ALONG THIS JET AXIS ARE BETWEEN 100-120 KT BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. PATCHES OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DRAWN NEWD FROM THE ITCZ TO THE JET AXIS...WHILE ABUNDANT SINKING AIR ALOFT IS STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE N OF THE JET. $$ CANGIALOSI