000
AXNT20 KNHC 200007
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
605 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
7N11W 4N25W 6N42W 5N52W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 21W TO 27W AND 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 45W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W ARE UNDER THE BASE 
OF DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED JET CORE 95 KT ROUNDING 
BASE TIP NEAR STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND HEADING NE SUPPORTING WEAK 
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS ALONG 103W ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOON TO ARRIVE GULF OF MEXICO.  MEANWHILE GULF 
OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER A DRY AIR MASS WITH ONLY ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF PANAMA CANAL ALONG 
79W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA INTO BAHAMAS.  STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 
84W...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 79W AND 83W.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS AREA MAINTAINING A DRY AIR MASS E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N57W TO 29N55W 
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CLUSTER 
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM W AND 60 NM E OF TROUGH.  MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 28N48W.  LARGE 
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST N OF CYCLONIC VORTEX PROVIDES 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER AREA NORTH OF CYCLONIC VORTEX.  MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N14W CYCLONIC VORTEX TO CANARY ISLANDS 
NEAR 28N18W TO 24N25W.  SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO INTO 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 29N11W...ACROSS CANARY ISLANDS...TO 28N24W.  
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 
26W AND 52W.
    
$$
WALLY BARNES