000 AXNT20 KNHC 190442 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N8W 4N20W 7N42W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO 7N BETWEEN 17W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF 12W ACROSS THE ATLC. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E US HAS RELAXED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF WESTERLY WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO A 1012 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 24N90W. THIS REMAINS A WEAK FRONT AND WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE GENERATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NE WINDS BRIDGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-85W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N82W ALONG 16N82W TO 11N79W. THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA COUPLED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N80W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF 80W. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THAT AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 67W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N71W TO THE 1012 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 78W FROM MIAMI TO DAYTONA BEACH. A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO BEYOND 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA S OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 74W-78W. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N66W TO BEYOND 32N67W. UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 40W-58W CENTERED NEAR 29N48W AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION 1020 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO 21N55W. THESE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N10W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N31W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N/7N TO 55W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR NO SHOWERS ARE FORMING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IN THE REGION OF THE SURFACE LOW. $$ WALLACE