000 AXNT20 KNHC 161054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10W 4N20W 4N30W 3N40W...TO 1N53W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...4N2W 4N6W 4N10W 3N20W 5N26W 5N32W 4N34W 5N40W 6N44W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AND A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE ANALYZED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N60W TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N82W TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA COMES FROM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 110W... ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY ENTERING AND MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 85W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N54W 22N57W AND 16N58W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 28N50W TO 23N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEST OF THE TROUGH ALONG 26N73W BEYOND 32N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 24N51W 21N60W 20N68W 24N75W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 240 NM NORTH OF THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N60W TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 31N82W TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N22W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N35W TO 10N44W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 25N37W 16N53W TO THE GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER NEAR 6N57W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TRAVELS FROM 8N39W TO THE EAST OF THE 32N22W 10N44W TROUGH...EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA. $$ MT