000 AXNT20 KNHC 160611 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10W 5N15W 4N30W 4N44W...INTO 2N52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N AT THE EQUATOR...4N10W 3N20W 2N22W 3N24W...5N27W 5N30W 5N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AND A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE ANALYZED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N62W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N82W TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA COMES FROM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 110W... ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY ENTERING AND MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 10N76W TO 16N82W CURVING TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 23N60W TO 21N67W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 29N50W TO 24N60W TO 24N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEST OF THE TROUGH ALONG 28N73W BEYOND 33N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 27N49W 23N55W 21N65W 22N75W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 240 NM NORTH OF THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N62W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N82W TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N22W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N34W TO 10N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 27N39W 22N46W UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TRAVELS FROM 8N39W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N22W 22N34W 10N47W EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA. $$ MT