000
AXNT20 KNHC 151729
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 3N30W 4N40W 3N50W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST 
OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-16W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 23W-27W...AND IS ALONG THE COAST OF S 
AMERICA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 47W-52W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA.  A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SW TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N27W.  THUS SURFACE 
WINDS E OF 90W ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE SE AT 10-20 KT WITH THE 
HIGHEST WINDS FOUND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  WINDS W OF 90W 
ARE FROM THE SE AT 5-10 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 90W-92W.  THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  SMOKE 
IS NOTED OVER THE E GULF E OF 92W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.  WINDS OVER FLORIDA ARE NOW REGULAR TRADEWINDS THAT 
MAY BRING IN SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM THE W ATLANTIC.  DIURNAL 
SEABREEZE SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER INLAND FLORIDA.        

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
10N76W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TOWARDS W CUBA 
NEAR 20N83W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 76W-79W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST S OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 
77W-80W.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA 
E OF 73W.  AFRICAN DUST IS NOW OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD 
ISLANDS E OF 66W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN E/W RIDGE 
IS OVER THE SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 10N.  WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS N 
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA.  THE FRONT IS A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N48W 27N60W 26N66W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 46W-50W.  
THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N80W.  A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 29N50W 
21N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 
50W-54W.  A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
39N21W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 23N46W.  IN THE 
TROPICS...AN AIRMASS SURGE IS S OF 20N AND EXTENDS FROM AFRICA 
TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING W.  A SECONDARY THICKER PLUME OF 
DUST IS S OF 15N AND E OF 47W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N W OF 50W SUPPORTING 
THE COLD FRONT.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 40W-50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 30W-40W.  WLY FLOW IS E OF 30W.
    
$$
FORMOSA