000 AXNT20 KNHC 131802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 69W-75W AND HAS BECOME LESS WELL ORGANIZED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ENE AND CONTINUES TO AWAY FROM THE SE US. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 6N15W 2N35W 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 0W-4W WITH A LARGER AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION JUST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE N GULF NEAR WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS LOUISIANAN BORDER. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR 28N95.5W 1019 MB. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS THE N GULF FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 12N. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 75W-80W ACROSS JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY. ATLANTIC... REMNANTS OF ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SE US COAST...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS A PORTION OF THE N BAHAMAS N OF A LINE FROM ANDROS TO ELEUTHERA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N60W ALONG 22N50W TO BEYOND 32N42W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N61W TO 31N55W. ALSO WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 21N76W TO 32N58W. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N18W SW TO 18N28W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W. DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC ESPECIALLY E OF 60W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N E OF 50W WITH THE DENSEST PORTION S OF 13N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. $$ LL