000 AXNT20 KNHC 131101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 73W-76W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 69W-73W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UN-ORGANIZED AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ENE AND CONTINUES TO AWAY FROM THE SE US. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N16W 2N36W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-5W WITH A LARGER AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION JUST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 23N80W COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N89W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 82W-88W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS THE N GULF FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 75W-80W ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 22N80W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 14N83W GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC... REMNANTS OF ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SE US COAST...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS A PORTION OF THE N BAHAMAS N OF A LINE FROM ANDROS TO ELEUTHERA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N60W ALONG 22N50W TO BEYOND 32N42W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N62W TO 32N64W INCLUDING BERMUDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 68W-78W. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W SW TO 15N37W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W. DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC ESPECIALLY E OF 60W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N E OF 50W WITH THE DENSEST PORTION S OF 13N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. $$ WALLACE