000 AXNT20 KNHC 130507 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ENE OF THE CENTER WITHIN 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 30N75W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY ENE AND A CONTINUED MOTION AWAY FROM THE SE US IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N17W 2N30W 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 5N20W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N79W COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N86W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N96W. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS MUCH OF THE N GULF FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS SE TO ALL OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 75W-81W ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 20N82W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 14N83W GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC... REMNANTS OF ANDREA...IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS A PORTION OF THE N BAHAMAS N OF ANDROS TO ELEUTHERA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W ALONG 22N47W TO BEYOND 32N40W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 67W-78W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N63W TO 32N66W INCLUDING BERMUDA. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N23W SW TO 15N37W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W. DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC ESPECIALLY E OF 60W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ WALLACE