000 AXNT20 KNHC 121752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1005 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST AT 12/1500 UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER. INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 1N35W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 8W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 31W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF NEAR 27N88W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH COVERING MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT IS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO W-CENTRAL CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF. SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES IN SE GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. VIS SAT IMAGERY AND NESDIS SMOKE DETECTION PAGE SHOW A DENSE PLUME OF SMOKE COVERING THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA...JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STATIONS ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE E COAST OF FLORIDA S OF WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUE TO REPORT HAZE OR SMOKE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THESE CONDITIONS ALSO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE NW BAHAMA ISLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH MON...WHEN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE SWLY FLOW COVERS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER NE VENEZUELA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS E CUBA/JAMAICA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST MAINLY ON THE EPAC SIDE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AND THE PRESENCE OF A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N76W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 80W. FRESH ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC... A 1005 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF ANDREA...IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH IS BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO BEYOND 32N45W. IN BETWEEN THESE UPPER HIGHS...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N73W...THEN CONTINUES SW AND W TO THE UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS TRIGGERING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 25N71W AND 31N69W. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N57W WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 50W-56W. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 24N36W THAT HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR 14N...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N35W. $$ GR