000 AXNT20 KNHC 121050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SMALL 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND DAYTONA BEACH NEAR 29N79W. THE PRESSURE OF THIS LOW HAS DROPPED DURING THE NIGHT BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N19W 1N35W 3N52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-9W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW IS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N90W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE GULF TO NEAR 23N82W COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 85W-94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE GULF TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. STATIONS ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE E COAST OF FLORIDA S OF WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUE TO REPORT HAZE OR SMOKE AND IT CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER S FLORIDA INCLUDING THE S PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THESE CONDITIONS INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLC AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W TROPICAL/CENTRAL ATLC. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N81W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N FROM HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC... A 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF ANDREA...IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W ALONG 22N55W TO BEYOND 32N47W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N64W TO 26N75W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS ENTERED NEAR 31N60W WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N32N BETWEEN 52W-66W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N35W COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N FROM 27W-45W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH THE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE