000 AXNT20 KNHC 120528 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE LOW IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE S AND E FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N16W 2N29W 2N38W 4N52W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 120 NM OF LINE FROM EQ1W 2N5W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 6N7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 26W-40W AND FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE GULF TO NEAR 24N86W AND IS NO LONGER PRODUCING THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OF LAST NIGHT. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W. SOME SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE GULF IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES IN SE GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF SMOKE COVERING THE ENTIRE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND A SECOND THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N78W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N FROM HAITI TO E CUBA INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE ER PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC... A 1007 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF ANDREA...IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N66W TO 25N70W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W ALONG 22N55W TO BEYOND 32N50W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 350 NM OF LINE FROM OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 19N67W TO BEYOND 32N59W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N36W COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N FROM 25W-50W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR AND IS PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 30W-37W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N35W. $$ WALLACE