000 AXNT20 KNHC 120004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES E OF CAPE CANAVERAL... BETWEEN THE TWO CAPE CANAVERAL BUOYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...BUT IT LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-79W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 4N50W 3N55W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA...W OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN 1W-5W MOVING W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 9W-11W...FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 17W-23W...AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 25W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 36W-40W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 36W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 51W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA COAST...JUST INLAND OF VERO BEACH...DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA. THIS BAND IS SW OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC MENTIONED ABOVE. NORTH...WEST CENTRAL...AND SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO HAVE SMOKE WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN FOUR MILES DUE TO FIRES IN FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. OF NOTE...AN AREA OF THICK SMOKE IS DEPICTED ON RADAR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W MOVING E. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W PRODUCING LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-100W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 86W-94W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT TO THE NE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE NORMAL TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ITCZ HAS PUSHED N AND EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 81W-85W... AND S OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM JAMAICA S TO THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. ATLANTIC... REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N65W 25N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 64W-70W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N11W. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 40W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N36W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 30W-50W. WLY FLOW IS E OF 30W TO AFRICA. $$ FORMOSA