000 AXNT20 KNHC 110015 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA AT 10/2100 UTC IS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 79.8W OR ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 95 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. ANDREA IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ANDREA IS MAINTAINING VERY LITTLE CONVECTION...ALL E OF THE CENTER. NWLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND RELATIVELY COOL SST'S ARE ALL CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 78W-79W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W 3N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALL INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 16W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ANDREA IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA...AND YET IS NOT PRODUCING ANY RAIN OVER THE DROUGHT STRICKEN STATE. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE A WELL DEFINED PLUME OF SMOKE FROM A LARGE FIRE OVER SE GEORGIA IS FUNNELING TOWARDS TAMPA FLORIDA REDUCING VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY. CYCLONIC SURFACE TURNING IS ALSO DRIVING SMOKE TOWARDS SE FLORIDA. FURTHER W...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 26N91W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLOW S OF 28N. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE NORMAL TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ITCZ HAS PUSHED N AND EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 72W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN BETWEEN 75W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM JAMAICA S TO THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. ATLANTIC... REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ANDREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N66W 26N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N14W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 30W-50W. WLY FLOW IS E OF 30W TO AFRICA. $$ FORMOSA