000 AXNT20 KNHC 081714 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY IS FROM 4S-3N BETWEEN 27W-42W. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR 30.5N77W...OR ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. THE 12Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE BAHAMAS. BUOY 41010 CONTINUES TO REPORT SEAS NEAR 20 FT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WNW INTO THE GULF NEAR 23N91W. THE BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY A NARROW BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS HAS WEAKENED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...HOWEVER UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO AID IN CONVECTION OVER NE MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE FAR W GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION INTO THE W GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING SKIES FAIR TO MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM SE CUBA NEAR 20.5N76.5W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF. PATCHES OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS SURROUND THE BOUNDARY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING E/NE TRADES FAIRLY LIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE EXCEPT TO 20 KT IN THE SE PORTION. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING TRANSPORTED NE FROM THIS CONVECTIVE AREA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY STRONG WSW UPPER FLOW. WESTERN ATLANTIC... THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S...SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 28N-32N WEST OF 73W. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE REGION. WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. A TRAILING FRONT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N71W ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS INTO SE CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT ALONG 31N/32N TO 57N WHERE IT CONNECTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N47W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 23N-26N AND 61W-68W. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC... THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THANKS TO A STRONG 1031MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE PORTUGAL. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES... STRONGEST E OF 25W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED DUE TO SOME INVERTED TROUGHING NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. A BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 47W-51W EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC IS COVERED BY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS. $$ RJW