000 AXNT20 KNHC 071746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 2N30W...AND ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-21W... AND WITHIN 80 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 1S-2N BETWEEN WEST OF 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SE U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. AS OF 15Z...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUING NW TO SE LOUISIANA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON SAT IMAGERY WHERE A 125 NM WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS SEEN...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND 10-20 KT E TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE REST OF THE GULF. A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ALONG TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS. UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN GULF WHICH IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD. TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYERED LOW LOCATED SE OF CAPE HATTERAS EXTENDS INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF GIVING THE AREA A NW WIND FLOW. BRISK NE-E WINDS EXPECTED IN THE E AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...VEERING MORE SE IN THE WRN PORTION. THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SFC PRES PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS WEAK DUE TO LOW PRES IN THE SW N ATLC. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED E TO NE TRADE WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ ARE ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. A 1007 MB SFC LOW IS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS ALSO GENERATING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. UPPER SW FLOW BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CARIB AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN CARIB IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. WESTERN ATLANTIC... ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER OFF THE SE OF UNITED STATES. A 998 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z MAP NEAR 32N73W. THIS STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N38W THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER W-CENTRAL CUBA. CURRENTLY...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS THE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS AS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL ADVISORIES AND WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG THE COAST FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO BEYOND THE CAROLINAS WHERE ROUGH SURF AND VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE SE COAST OF U.S. TUE THROUGH WED...RAINFALL WILL BE ALSO A CONCERN. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES. FARTHER E...A 1011 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N60W WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE MAINLY E OF THE LOW N OF 28N BETWEEN 52-58W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC OCEAN IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...STRONGEST E OF 25W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED DUE TO LOWER PRES OVER AFRICA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 31N22W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 17N31W...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. $$ GR