000 AXNT20 KNHC 052350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W EQ50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 37W-44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF DELAWARE NEAR 38N73W. 10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 96W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 80W-83W DUE TO SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS W OF THE RIDGE. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE E OVER THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH MORE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION OVER INLAND FLORIDA TOMORROW. CARIBBEAN SEA... STEADY 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO S MEXICO. ALSO AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 72W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 20N AND W OF 80W. THE WRN PORTION OF A LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MOST OF THE SEA E OF 80W HAS SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH THE TRADEWINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 22N70W 19N72W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NE AT 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC NEAR 36N27W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-60W. SAHARAN DUST IS SPREADING W ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS...THICKEST FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EWD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N30W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-40W. WLY FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN. $$ FORMOSA