000 AXNT20 KNHC 042342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 2N30W 3N40W 2N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 4W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 25W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 37N80W. 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 87W-90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND S FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO SEABREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER W KENTUCKY NEAR 37N88W MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRIMARILY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... STEADY 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W CUBA BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 86W-91W. ALSO AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N AND W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR 4N62W. MOST OF THE SEA E OF 80W HAS SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N74W 23N75W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 26N62W IN 24 HOURS. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-60W. SAHARAN DUST IS SPREADING W ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS...THICKEST FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EWD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N35W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 25W-45W. WLY FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN. $$ FORMOSA