000 AXNT20 KNHC 032349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N30W 2N45W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 4W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 21W-26W... AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 37W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 28N85W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED GOING AROUND THE HIGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER SRN OKLAHOMA NEAR 34N96W MOVING E. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND E TEXAS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 93W-96W MOVING E. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND S FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W MOVING N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS THE CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS WILL BRUSH THE N GULF AND MOVE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... WHILE THE CONVECTION OVER INLAND FLORIDA WILL MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... STEADY 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 87W-89W. ALSO AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 78W-82W. FURTHER S... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 9N PRODUCING CLUTTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 76W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR 6N65W. MOST OF THE SEA E OF 80W HAS SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N73W 24N74W 29N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA ...THE SRN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 68W-80W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 26N67W IN 24 HOURS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N32W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-65W. SAHARAN DUST IS SPREADING W ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS...THICKEST FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EWD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 35W-50W. WLY FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN. $$ FORMOSA