000
AXNT20 KNHC 031031
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N21W 4N44W 3N52W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF W AFRICA FROM THE AXIS TO 10N 
BETWEEN 10W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE AXIS FROM 16W-52W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE COAST OF SW 
AFRICA TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 14W TO ACROSS THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER N TEXAS GENERATING STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER E TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 93W 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO IN W GULF N 
OF 22N W OF 95W. THE W GULF IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE 
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N89W AND IS DRAWING THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER 
TEXAS INTO THE W GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST 
ACROSS THE E GULF MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE 
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WITH STILL NO ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE REFLECTION. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS 
TO FLORIDA. THE DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN 
TO CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA. THE 
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM HAITI NEAR 72W TO 
OVER CUBA NEAR 81W. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS 
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER COSTA RICA. 
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS USHERING IN 
SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W.  

ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA 
INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 28N73W OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 
21N77W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 68W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES 
BETWEEN 67W-78W WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N TO THE 
COAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N 
OF 22N FROM 35W-60W BUT NO ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES 
PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N32W. 
THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING 
THE REMINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. 

$$
WALLACE